MacKenzie, DonCoenen, Steffen2023-08-142023-08-142023-08-142023Coenen_washington_0250O_25440.pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1773/50281Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2023Washington state has passed ambitious carbon emission reduction and gasoline vehicle phase-out goals. To meet these goals, the state is undertaking substantial efforts to plan for, predict, and address the impacts of a rapid electrification of the transportation sector. This thesis presents three research contributions that tangibly assist this process and it thus highlights the need for and capabilities of academic research beyond foundational science to supportpublic policy. Washington state pursues the development of a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mapping and forecasting tool to oversee the electric vehicle uptake and public charging station buildout. To support the future procurement of this tool, I reviewed and scored existing tools’ capability to help state and local governments plan for ZEV infrastructure. The findings show that none of the reviewed tools could meet all requirements the state set alone or in combination. The recommendations to the state included alternative procurement options. Second, in support of the state’s efforts, I developed light-duty electric vehicle (EV) registration forecasts by census tract. The developed forecasts are based on Department of Licensing vehicle registration data and a logistic regression model accounting for time trends and census tract specifics. I concluded that the product, price, and policy trends of the last years are not sufficient to reach the state’s EV adoption goals. However, new EV models, falling prices, and federal and state policies may still alter the underlying trends. Lastly, I led the first effort to quantify future electricity demand for electric aviation at regional airports. I applied the modeling framework to two mid-size airports in Washington: Paine Field/Snohomish County Airport and Grant County International Airport. The method combined estimates of flight range and aircraft power demand with operations growth projections and historic adoption rates of new aviation technologies. The results revealed that during the first decade of adoption utility companies are expected to be able to serve the energy and power needs of electric aviation with available capacity at existing substations close to the studied airports.application/pdfen-USCC BY-NC-SATransportationEngineeringCivil engineeringThesis