Watkins, David APickersgill, Sarah2020-10-262020-10-262020Pickersgill_washington_0250O_22169.pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1773/46325Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2020The objective of this project is to develop a new framework to estimate the country-level health impact of scaling up interventions that treat and prevent hypertension to achieve global targets for the prevention and control of noncommunicable disease. To do this, we developed a state-transition Markov model tested with data for a single country, China. Modeled outcomes include prevalence and deaths of ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. Secondary, publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), and other studies were used to populate and parameterize the model. For two interventions 1) increasing antihypertensive drug therapy to 50% effective coverage by 2025 and 2) implementing population-wide salt reduction policies to achieve 30% reduction in salt intake, we project approximately 260 million cumulative new cases of cardiovascular disease and 15 million cumulative deaths could both be averted between 2020 and 2040. We project approximately 1.3 million lives could be saved per year by 2040 – making up 6.8% of all deaths that year. Using this simple but flexible model, we show the potential to prevent premature mortality and morbidity of these two relatively simple public health interventions.application/pdfen-USnonePublic healthGlobal HealthThesis