Romich, JenniferRocha, Anita Louise2022-07-142022-07-142022Rocha_washington_0250E_24325.pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1773/49136Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2022Background and Purpose: By 2010 in the United States, approximately 11.3 million cases owed over $110 billion in back child support. The accumulated debt from unpaid child support may be due, at least in part, to non-custodial parents’ inability to afford it. The setting of order amounts relies on a set of assumptions which may not reflect the reality of low-income, non-custodial parents, like uncertainty in wages and intermittent workforce participation. Even attempts to improve economic conditions for the lowest-wage workers, like a local minimum wage increase, may have uncertain effects on non-custodial parents’ earnings and thereby, their ability to pay child support. Could a local minimum wage increase be followed by an alteration in the number of hours worked, earnings, and the amount of child support paid by low-income, non-custodial parents? Analyzing data from a cohort of low-income, non-custodial parents (NCPs) from 2010 through 2016, comparing those working in jurisdictions with local minimum wage increases (Seattle, Tacoma, and SeaTac) to those working in other areas of Washington state, findings from this study could inform policies to improve the economic outcomes for families that depend on financial support from non-resident parents.Methods: With Washington State administrative data from 2010 to 2016, I examine over 70,000 low-income NCPs, all of whom have active child support orders around the time of an increase in local minimum wages. As a longitudinal cohort study, I take a difference-in-difference approach to compare parents who worked in jurisdictions subject to local minimum wage increases to those who did not. Using interrupted time-series models with propensity score weighting, I examine outcomes involving hours worked, earnings, and child support payments before and after an increase in a local minimum wage. Results: NCPs exposed to a local minimum wage increase results in a 5% decline in the chance of having any job in a quarter. They also see a 14-hour reduction in the expected mean number of hours worked per quarter. a drop averaging about 1 hour per week. Even with a small increase in expected mean hourly earnings of $0.05 per hour, NCPs subject to a minimum wage increase experience a decrease in overall expected earnings of $260 per quarter, about a $20 per week decline. Finally, there is a change in predicted percent of child support paid after a minimum wage increase, depending on NCPs’ earnings. Those earning less than $2,700 per quarter show as much as a 1% increase in child support paid, while those earning more have up to a 1% decrease. Conclusions and Implications: While many factors influence consistent and full child support payments, results in this study suggest that local minimum wage increases can lead to a decrease in hours worked, earnings, and child support payments among non-custodial parents, at least in the short-term. A decline in child support payments is only evident among those with higher earnings, and the change is small, approaching 1% of the order amount. Rather than statistical significance, my conclusions, therefore, rest on questions of practical significance. Will the magnitudes of these shifts in work hours, earnings, or child support payments tangibly change the level of resources available to children whose families are dependent on child support? This prompts a discussion of what constitutes substantive material support for children.application/pdfen-USCC BYchild supportemploymentlow-incomeminimum wagenon-custodial parentSocial workPublic policyLabor economicsSocial work - SeattleThesis