The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict on Russia’s Role in Central Asia

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the war in Ukraine is impacting Russia’s influence in its “near abroad,” specifically Central Asia. This paper argues that Central Asia remained close to the Kremlin due to Moscow's importance in Central Asian energy trade and security. Because of geographic and infrastructure limitations, Central Asian countries could not take advantage of their rich natural resources, most notably oil, and gas, without Russia’s involvement. This changed when China emerged as an economic superpower in the region. China challenged Russia's monopoly over the Central Asian energy trade and eventually became the primary energy partner to Central Asian states. Nonetheless, Russia has maintained considerable influence due to its role in Central Asia by fulfilling a position no other actor has been willing to perform, which is regime protection. Because of this, Central Asian states have been hesitant to move away from Russia, even as most of the world is turning away from Moscow.