Quantifying Crime Displacement After A Hot-Spot Intervention

Abstract

Research has shown that urban crime concentrates in specific urban areas, leading practitioners to combine criminological theory to help inform policies and strategies on how to address this phenomenon. Outside of measuring the success of an intervention in a focal area, there is concern that the effects of the operation will lead to the displacement of crime to surrounding areas. Some scholars argue for the contrary that the positive benefits of the operation will pour into nearby areas. Studies on this topic have been plagued with poor data and outdated methods in measuring whether crime moves to nearby areas or not. This study attempts to address previous methodological concerns by measuring the geographic extent to which crime might displace as well as the lasting impact of an operation. Results show that crime may move further from a focal area than previously expected and that the positive effects of an operation may not last.