Assessing Disparities in Clemency Hearing Selection

Abstract

Clemency serves as a crucial mechanism for early release in Washington state, where parole has been abolished and mandatory sentencing minimums have increased long-term incarceration. While prior research has examined clemency hearing outcomes in terms of petitioner demographics and offense type, far less is known about the early stages of the clemency process – particularly the factors that influence whether a petition advances to a full board hearing. This thesis analyzed data from 77 clemency petitions to explore factors associated with advancement to full board hearings using bivariate and multivariate analyses. This thesis pursued two primary aims: (1) to assess whether disparities in hearing selection exist across petitioner demographic characteristics (e.g., ethnoracial identity, gender, and age), and (2) to examine how legal and contextual factors influence the likelihood of receiving a hearing. Bivariate results showed no significant differences across demographic groups; meanwhile, petitioners with legal representation, release plans, and severe sentences were more likely to advance, while sex offense convictions reduced the likelihood. No predictors were statistically significant in the multivariate analysis, though trends aligned with bivariate findings, indicating a complex, discretionary selection process influenced by institutional support and case factors. These findings suggest that clemency hearing selection decisions are influenced by specific legal and support-related factors which may advantage some petitioners over others and inadvertently reproduce disparities. Results point to a need for greater consistency and objectivity in decision-making. Given the exploratory nature of this thesis and the limited research on clemency hearing selection, further research is warranted to examine how structural inequities shape petition outcomes and to inform more equitable clemency petition review process.