Studying Working Landscapes: Non-Timber Forest Products, Climate Risk, and Watershed Restoration in Washington State

Abstract

Washington State is a mosaic landscape of different working lands that support a wide range of communities economically, culturally, and environmentally. The studies presented examine the relationships of working lands and communities under the lens of forest economies through the non-timber forest products (NTFPs) industry, climate risk to resources, and watershed restoration decisions made on private lands. The studies employ qualitative case-study research, climate-risk analysis, and stated preference methods to understand how working landscapes intersect and stand to benefit those within the state. The first study presents a qualitative case study of the NTFP greenery and bough industry through interviews and archival evidence to understand how the industry is organized, sustained, and constrained. The industry is a multi-layer system that operates with many different parties, from landowners, harvesters, processors, brokers, wholesalers, and retailers, that is built and sustained on developed trust and mutual gain. The industry is largely supported by a greenery export market to Europe and a strong Christmas greenery and bough market domestically. However, the industry faces challenges with decreased exports to a weakening European market, declining harvest opportunities on National Forest lands, changing consumer preferences, land-use change, immigration policies, and the uncertainty of climate change. Nevertheless, the industry does have opportunities in the form of integrated NTFP management with timber production, forest farming development, improved connection and education, and the development of new products. The second study evaluates the risk to bough production associated with climate change affecting seasonal heat, cooling, and snow conditions. The bough industry presents a unique product that is seasonally constrained by physiological processes of evergreen trees and the cultural importance of the Christmas holiday in the United States, serving an important product in rural economies in Western Washington. Ensembled, downscaled climate models under moderate climate conditions from 2015 to 2100 were used to develop operational indicators based on observable weather conditions representing late summer and early fall heat, timing of the first frost, and snowfall. Indicators were developed for Western Washington and Oregon across forest ownership types and ecoregions. Results indicate a shrinking post-frost quality window with the probability of frost by November 15th declining by 11.5 to 15.8 percentage points across private forest lands by the end of the century. Coastal and lowland forests are projected to have less reliable frost events compared to montane and federal forests, suggesting a possible spatial shift where managers may look to for reliable frost-conditioned boughs during the early and mid-harvest season.

The third study employs stated preference methods to understand incentives and barriers to private landowner willingness to engage in watershed restoration in the Stillaguamish River watershed. Landowner willingness-to-accept and engage in conservation programs and landowner willingness-to-pay for conservation funding were estimated through a split-sample survey design using mixed logit models. Results indicate that landowners were less likely to engage in conservation programs under longer contracts and more frequent monitoring from the program sponsor. Overall, individual environmental identity, age, and length of residency helped explain stated enrollment preference. For willingness-to-pay, landowners were more willing to pay for salmon habitat enhancement and water quality improvement purposes compared to recreation enhancement or increased sport fishing purposes. Higher fees also deterred willingness to engage in the funding program. Individuals’ prior experience in restoration, environmental identity, and acreage holdings explained variance in individual decisions. Modeled results were used to create pseudo-policy scenarios to explore policies and programs that landowners would support through a majority referendum style simulation. Results indicate that feasible revenues from the within the local watershed may not be able to support all those who are willing to enroll acres for restoration. These studies explore the working landscape through different methods and different settings. The NTFP industry has long supported rural economies in Washington State and faces several different challenges, along with many opportunities, but remains a relatively unknown industry to scientific literature. A changing climate introduces uncertainty to the NTFP industry and a culturally significant product to the region. Restoring the lands that support these industries, ecosystems, and mitigate against climate change requires collective action across private ownerships that may not have the capacity to support those willing to engage in restoration. The research gaps highlighted across these studies point to where more work is needed in the regional context.