Social factor modification of malaria-weather relationship in Kanungu, UG

Abstract

University of Washington Abstract Social factor modification of malaria-weather relationship in Kanungu, UG Katarina Ost Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Kristie Ebi Department of Global Health and Department of Environmental Health & Occupational Science Background: There is growing concern in the international community regarding the influence of climate change and season on rates of malaria and other diseases. In this study we examine the role of social demographics in modifying the relationship between weather variability and malaria in Kanungu (Southwest Uganda). Methods: Hospital admissions data from Bwindi Community Hospital were combined with meteorological satellite data from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the distribution of malaria admissions to the hospital by age, sex and ethnicity. I used negative binomial regression and stratified models to determine association between rates of malaria and meteorological variables temperature and season, as well as the interactive role of demographic variables age, sex and ethnicity. Results: During the hottest quartile of temperature, admissions for malaria were highest among the ethnic Batwa IRR 2.35 (95% CI: 0.88, 6.25) and the age group of 6-12 year olds IRR 2.04 (95% CI: 1.24, 3.37). Discussion: Results indicate that social demographic variables modify the relationship between weather variability and malaria. This may suggest that promoting local level policy could be necessary to implement adaptation strategies that will optimize equitable health outcomes among uniquely diverse populations in a changing climate.