North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Understanding the Threat, Avoiding War5, Crafting Future Options

Abstract

Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has progressed rapidly and defiantly toward its goal of becoming a nuclear weapons state able to reach the continental US with its warheads. Despite many attempts at prevention, multiple US administrations have failed to achieve the Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible, Dismantlement (CVID) of the North Korean nuclear program. Against all odds, the DPRK now seems close to achieving its goal. On July 4th 2017, the DPRK showed it had likely produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power.1 In November of 2017, the Hwasong-15, an Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) based on Russian designs, demonstrated a range of 13,000 km, well in range of the US mainland. Since then, various experts and US intelligence have estimated that North Korea possesses somewhere between 20 and 60 nuclear weapons.