Forecasting Exposure to Occupational Back Pain: 2013 – 2040

Abstract

A new model is proposed and evaluated to produce forecasts to 2040 of exposure to occupational back pain, a risk factor in the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study’s comparative risk assessment. Summary exposure values are created from the population distribution of exposures for 188 countries, 13 age groups, and both sexes. The model is a Bayesian auto-regressive model with a Leroux continuous auto-regressive prior to smooth over both age groups and location. Global exposure to ergonomic factors that cause occupational back pain decrease for every country and both sexes. All-ages male exposure decreases from a mean of 0.19 in 2013 to a mean of 0.17 in 2040, while all-ages female exposure decreases from a mean of 0.17 to 0.15 in 2040. These forecasts will allow for the creation of detailed burden of disease forecasts that include risk attributions. Additionally, this forecasting framework allows for investigation of hypothetical policies and their influence on burden through reduction in exposure to occupational risk factors.