Estimating Iraqi mortality from the Iran-Iraq war through Operation Desert Storm, 1980-1994

Abstract

Objectives. We calculated the Iraqi mortality rate by using sibling’s survival method and triangulated it with historical literature during the conflict setting, 1980 to 1993. Methods. We used two stages cluster sampling to select households and interviewers who reported their siblings. We used improved analysis of sibling survival data to extrapolate 45q15 and death counts from 1980 to 1993. We collected historical events from ProQuest database and generate correlation between reported death count and history incidence. Results. In our analysis, the Iran-Iraq conflict generated an estimated 222,079 adult deaths. During the peace interval between the two wars a total of 25,418 direct war deaths were reported. Deaths associated with the Gulf War were 15,118, although 23,646 additional deaths were reported during the 8-month period immediately following the U.S. withdrawal. We found the relationship between war events in relation to total deaths. With a p-value of 0.02, we see the Spearman value is .61. Conclusions. Despite we ask interviewers to recall 30 years formerly, sibling survival method still provides a confirmable estimation on mortality rate during the conflict setting.