Information's Effect on Public Opinion, Social Institutions, and Political Behavior

Abstract

This dissertation examines the effects of information on important political outcomes across Africa. I focus on how exposure to different forms of information affects public opinion, the social institutions that incentivize or undermine political participation, and ultimately an individual's willingness to engage in political behavior. In the first essay, I study how an individual's consumption of different types of media shapes their public opinion of homosexuality. I find that radio and television consumption have no (or a negative) effect on pro-gay attitudes, whereas individuals who consume more newspaper, internet, or social media are significantly more likely to support homosexuality. I use placebo tests and content analysis to argue that these differential effects are driven by censorship of queer representation (i.e. information) from certain mediums. In the second essay, I examine how information signals affect social institutions and ultimately political behavior. First, I develop a new theory that conceives of non-government organizations (NGOs) as information signals that affect an individual's perceptions about the government's credibility and about their neighbors' likely political behavior. In doing so, I argue that changes in the prevalence of NGOs in a community also reshapes the social institutions that incentivize or undermine political participation. I test my theory with original survey data from Nairobi's informal settlements and find that individuals who live in areas with more NGOs are significantly less likely (by about 35%) to monitor or support government services. Additional analysis shows that individuals' political behavior is strongly and positively linked to their expectations of their neighbors' behavior, and that expectations about neighbors' political behavior is negatively linked to the prevalence of NGOs in a neighborhood. In the final essay, I apply my theory from the second essay to a specific form of non-state service provision -- education. I test hypotheses with observational survey data, a survey experiment, and qualitative data. Using the observational data, I find that individuals who live in neighborhoods with more private schools (compared to those who live in neighborhoods with fewer private schools) are less likely (by about 55-60%) to view the government as a credible provider of education, less likely (by about 50--70%) to believe that their neighbors would monitor or support government schools, and less likely (by about 50%) to monitor government schools themselves. My survey experiment yields null results; however, the findings along with my qualitative data provide important insights on the conditions necessary for information signals to reshape social institutions. Ultimately, my results suggest that increased privatization of education may contribute to negative perceptions about the government's capacity and responsibility to provide education and less oversight of government schools. This research provides some of the first empirical evidence to inform active debates about the political effects of non-state education in low-income countries.