Polar Pollution: Modeling Potential Origins and Sinking of Plastic in the Arctic Ocean

Abstract

Increasing levels of plastic are being found in remote Arctic areas. Movement, sinking rates, and origins of plastic particles in the Arctic Ocean were evaluated using a modeling approach. The Adrift Model which moves particles through the ocean via modeling average currents and winds, was implemented and enhanced to add components that originally were not accounted for. With no methods to remove plastics and the land being so remote, the Arctic is extremely vulnerable to plastic pollution. I determined the most likely sources (locations and countries) of the plastics being found in areas that have little or no human interaction. The Adrift Model only predicts particle movement in a single 15m cell at the surface of the ocean and does not account for particle sinking. Data was evaluated and visualized using Google Colab after computations on model output have been applied via Microsoft Excel to overcome these limitations. Based on the North Sea containing a large northbound current into the Arctic as well as it being the location for several major cities, I predicted that the primary source of plastic was near the North Sea. Iceland had a probability of 0.017 in Arctic after two months and 0.256 after one year, which is approximately 250 metric tons of plastic. Greenland had a 0.005 probability after two months and 0.298 after one year, which translates to 46 metric tons. Finally, the North Sea had a 0.00 probability after two months and 0.424 after one year, which translates to around 279,000 metric tons. The three chosen locations had plastic particles that traveled into the Arctic, with plastics from Iceland and Greenland having to float for two months, and plastics particles from the North Sea having to float for a minimum of six months to be carried into the Arctic.