Unfinished Business: Lessons from the Deadlock of the Environmental Goods Agreement

Abstract

The Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) negotiations started in 2014 but deadlocked in 2016. The EGA was intended to promote sustainable development and revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO) system. This dissertation finds that two important international documents inspired the EGA: the Information Technology Agreement and its expansion (ITA and ITA-II) and the 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation List of Environmental Goods (APEC EGs List). However, the EGA negotiation became deadlocked, notwithstanding these two successful precedents. This dissertation will consider why there was so much optimism regarding the EGA before the negotiations deadlocked and whether the deadlock of the EGA negotiations has any significance for the future of the WTO, more generally. The modalities (multilateral vs. plurilateral, project-based vs. list-based structure, hard vs. soft law, etc.) chosen for the EGA negotiations appear appropriate in light of the goals of the EGA project, so the possibility of inappropriate modality choice alone does not explain the deadlock. The critical mass agreement is considered a future template for WTO negotiations. More general political and economic factors may also provide help to provide an explanation. Advanced economies appeared to be more interested in selling EGs to emerging economies than emerging economies are interested in buying them, so the EGA may not offer a win-win to both advanced and emerging economies. The growing tensions between China and U.S. that erupted into a trade war in 2018 also played a role. The EGA negotiations deadlock provides a framework through which the challenges facing the larger WTO system generally can be viewed.