Predicting Precipitation over the Northwest: from Weather Forecasts to Climate Change

Abstract

Cliff Mass will speak about the unique precipitation patterns in the Northwest. This has major societal impacts, such as flood control and damaging storms, usually associated with the "Pineapple Express." There has been major progress in understanding and predicting precipitation over this region during the past several decades. Mass will describe high resolution numerical simulations, which have become a central tool. He will also review the problems with these forecasts. He will describe the latest computer model prediction approaches, which use ensembles. Finally, he will consider the effects of global warming on Northwest precipitation.