The Impact of Forecast Inconsistency On User Trust

Abstract

For high impact weather events, forecasts often start days in advance. Meteorologists believe that consistency among subsequent forecasts is important to user trust and can therefore be reluctant to make changes when newer, potentially more accurate information becomes available. However, to date, there is little empirical evidence for an effect of inconsistency on user trust although the reduction in trust due to inaccuracy is well documented (Gupta, Bisantz, & Singh, 2001; Kahn & Luce, 2003; Joslyn & LeClerc, 2012). The experimental studies reported here compared the effects of forecast inconsistency and inaccuracy on user trust. Participants made several school closure decisions based on snow accumulation forecasts for one and two days prior to the target event. Consistency and accuracy were varied systematically. Although inconsistency reduced user trust, the effect of the reduction due to inaccuracy was greater suggesting that it is inadvisable for forecasters to sacrifice accuracy in favor of consistency.