Smoothing the Time Path of Landings. A Statistical Analysis of U.S. Catch Share Programs

Abstract

Catch share programs implemented in U.S. fisheries provide an alternative to traditional fishing practices and a means to deter overfishing and overcapitalization in fisheries markets. Research suggests that catch share programs are responsible tools for sustainable fishing, but there are still open questions concerning their impact on fishing behavior. Catch share programs, more specifically Individual Fishing Quotas, give fishermen a greater window of opportunity in the season, as well as their own quota share of the total annual catch; this defeats the race to fish in the beginning of seasons that ultimately leads to overcapitalization. Fishermen may be less likely to oversaturate the market and less likely to freeze fish to sell at a later time. With more fresh fish in the market as a result of a catch share program implementation, it may be the case that market prices of fish increase as the pattern of landings become smoother and more consistent. This paper examines these hypotheses using data of landings and landings value from 10 U.S. catch share programs. This data is then analyzed as a time series using local polynomial smoothing and testing for structural breaks in the variance and the mean. The results of this study were not conclusive, as most species did not show a smoother time trend as a result of a catch share program introduction. The results do leave room for further analysis to better examine all the variables and underlying trends.