Beyond Supply Chains: A Just Mining Index for Assessing Critical Mineral Sources

Abstract

Critical minerals are essential to the success of the global energy transition, yet decisionsabout where and how they are sourced often prioritize supply chain security over human rights and environmental implications. Given these different dimensions, I construct an index using principal component analysis to aggregate multiple factors related to just critical mineral mining and refining: security, infrastructure, socio-economic resilience, quality of life, climate preparedness, and human rights at a national level. I address two research questions: 1) What are the national security, EEJ, and human rights implications of new possible rare earth element investments and partnerships? And 2) what are the major concerns with rare earth elements mining or production in countries selected as new partners highlighted by the index? Using data compiled between 2023 and 2025 from the Fragile States Index, the Global Health Security Index, the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, World Bank, World Health Organization, and other United Nations bodies, I calculated the Just Mining Index, which ranges from zero, having the least capacity to support just mining, to one, having the most capacity to support just mining. Findings reveal that very few of the 174 nations scored are presently able to provide the conditions necessary for ‘just’ mining. However, this does not mean that this capacity cannot be created. Rather, because variation across nations exists, there is an opportunity to design investments and partnerships accordingly, in ways that address and quantify the justice trade-offs in planning alternative mineral sources.