Improving survey design and estimation methods for parental survival histories

Abstract

Demographic transitions are occurring globally, prompting increased interest in late-adult aged mortality. To supplement information from vital registration systems and close knowledge gaps in information scare settings, we have tested the use of parental survival data to estimate adult mortality. This research was conducted across four field sites in Tanzania, India (Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh), and the Philippines. Mortality information from parental survival histories was analyzed accounting for age heaping and missingness. Gakidou-King weights were applied to correct for survival bias in the survey sample. Age-specific mortality rates were calculated and compared with alternative sources of mortality information in the region to determine the validity of the estimation technique. The results show remarkable congruence between comparator sources of mortality information and the census and survey administered in this research project. Future surveys should implement direct parental survival modules to aid in the estimation of late-adult mortality levels and trends.