To Build or Not to Build: Risk-Based Screening Tool for Selecting Existing Commercial Office Buildings for Conversion to Multifamily Residential: Seattle Perspective

Abstract

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, office vacancy rates have increased substantially, contributing to blight in dense urban cores. At the same time, the demand for housing remains high. Meanwhile, the built environment is responsible for 40% of global carbon emissions, significantly contributing to climate change. In Seattle, Washington, recent legislative efforts around office-to-residential conversions reflect an interest in addressing vacancy concerns, creating more housing stock, and bolstering sustainability and resiliency. However, concerns exist regarding the high uncertainty of such conversions, as there is no standardized approach for risk management. As a result, the decision to proceed with potential office-to-residential conversions is often made on a case-by-case basis. In response, this study aims to develop a qualitative risk-based screening tool to evaluate the viability of a given Seattle office building for conversion to multifamily residential, based on a list of factors that impact conversion feasibility. The literature review establishes a direct correlation between building features and conversion feasibility. Repurposing a building for a different use entails new spatial, functional, and code requirements, affecting conversion costs and, therefore, financial risk — a major decision-making factor. To understand the factors with the greatest impact on conversions, professionals in the architecture, engineering, and construction industry are interviewed about their experiences with office-to-residential (O2R) conversions, highlighting the most impactful factors. Interview results are analyzed to create the O2R Screening Tool — a checklist — for professionals to use in preliminary screening of potential office-to-residential candidates. To test the applicability and effectiveness of the checklist in prioritizing the most viable buildings for conversion, a twofold validation process involving (i) a multi-case study and (ii) an online survey of industry experts is conducted. The main study outcome is a decision-making approach that identifies factors likely to pose challenges to a conversion and therefore serves as a risk management strategy for office-to-residential conversions. The findings of this study will help stakeholders and policymakers qualitatively understand the feasibility of converting existing office stock and focus strategies towards the most feasible candidates.