Understanding Current and Future Skagit Flood Risk Through New Modeling Capabilities
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On December 10, 2025, a Level 3 “Go” evacuation order was issued for 75,000 residents. While the forecast predicting record flood levels did not fully materialize, the event still caused significant harm and revealed a critical need for better predictive tools and a unified community response.
Fortunately, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (SITC), supported by a National Fish and Wildlife Foundation grant, was already leading a project to modernize flood modeling for the Skagit River. The project was designed to build upon the best available science to create an updated, climate-informed model of flooding in the Skagit watershed. The new model was intended to foster a shared understanding of flood risks.
Key goals include:
• Developing a Modernized Hydraulic Model: Creating an accessible, high-resolution hydraulic model covering the Skagit and Samish rivers, from their deltas upstream to Marblemount. The flood model incorporates the most up-to-date information on river and coastal flooding, dike failures, and future climate projections.
• Building Shared Understanding: Engaging tribal, local, and state governments, as well as the agricultural and environmental sectors, to raise awareness about current and future flood risks, describe the model and modeling results, and gather feedback on the approach and outputs.
• Visualizing Results: Providing clear, visual representations of flood depths, extents, velocities and durations to help the public and officials anticipate risks.
Fortunately, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (SITC), supported by a National Fish and Wildlife Foundation grant, was already leading a project to modernize flood modeling for the Skagit River. The project was designed to build upon the best available science to create an updated, climate-informed model of flooding in the Skagit watershed. The new model was intended to foster a shared understanding of flood risks.
Key goals include:
• Developing a Modernized Hydraulic Model: Creating an accessible, high-resolution hydraulic model covering the Skagit and Samish rivers, from their deltas upstream to Marblemount. The flood model incorporates the most up-to-date information on river and coastal flooding, dike failures, and future climate projections.
• Building Shared Understanding: Engaging tribal, local, and state governments, as well as the agricultural and environmental sectors, to raise awareness about current and future flood risks, describe the model and modeling results, and gather feedback on the approach and outputs.
• Visualizing Results: Providing clear, visual representations of flood depths, extents, velocities and durations to help the public and officials anticipate risks.