Planning for Climate Change in Seattle: Exploring Energy Infrastructure through Scenario Planning

Abstract

Climate change impacts continue to unfold, intensify, and consequently, endanger the fundamental aspects of life by threatening health, livelihood, and community. Climate research indicates that while all sectors contribute to climate change, the energy sector in particular is one of the major contributors. The energy sector involves all aspects of the industry which generates, transmits, distributes and sells energy. Moreover, since infrastructure is interconnected, disruptions to the energy system will lead to disruptions in other systems such as telecommunications, transportation, security, and healthcare. Therefore, understanding climate change impacts on electrical infrastructure will be crucial for preparing and planning for climate change. This is particularly important for Seattle City Light (SCL), Seattle’s public power utility, as it serves over 400,000 consumers; as a vertically-integrated utility, all components of SCL infrastructure will experience some climate-related threats and hazards. Warmer temperatures have the potential to decrease snowpack and lead to seasonal timing changes of streamflow, which will impact hydropower generation in the Puget Sound region and change the dynamic of energy supply in the region. Further, the increased intensity and frequency of climate-related hazards such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, flooding, wildfires, and storm surges can damage transmission and distribution lines, which can cause disruptions and delays to service. With climate change impacts impending, there is an increased urgency to develop a response that would ensure the utility’s ability to provide energy service to their customers as well as protect their existing infrastructure. However, maintaining infrastructure is a very capital-intensive endeavor, which is further complicated by climate change. This thesis explores alternative futures facing SCL to identify robust strategies to adapt to climate change.