Incorporating New Mobility Services into Public Transit in a Post-Pandemic Era: An Integrated Cost-Efficiency and Transportation Equity Perspective

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered significant shifts in work arrangements and activity-travel behavior, significantly reshaping urban mobility. With a focus on advancing post-pandemic public transit, this dissertation delves into the multifaceted impacts of post-pandemic mobility changes, particularly concerning the integration of new mobility services into public transit. For new mobility services to deliver sustainable impacts, they must increase the cost-effectiveness of public transportation and mobility options, especially for marginalized communities, by navigating and addressing emerging equity gaps. Hence, this dissertation aims to understand the changes in post-pandemic mobility needs and travel behavior while identifying opportunities and barriers to integrating new mobility services into public transit and creating a more equitable and sustainable transportation system. The dissertation consists of three studies. The first study focuses on understanding mobility patterns, needs, and equity gaps in the "new normal" era. Drawing on a comprehensive travel survey conducted with Commute Seattle and the Mobility Innovation Center, this study examines the evolving spatiotemporal patterns of urban mobility and travel behavior and explores the potential shifts in commute mode choice, shedding light on potential challenges for public transit and equity concerns post-pandemic. Using the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model and accounting for both remote work (telework) and the frequency of mode choice, the study provides critical and timely insights into the factors influencing commute mode choice in the new normal. The findings highlight the significant influence of sociodemographic, job-related, and built environment characteristics on mode choice and the nuanced difference in using each mode. The second study delves into the opportunities and barriers to advancing public transit post-pandemic, focusing on incorporating new mobility services into public transit. Through empirical research and analysis, this study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of incorporating transportation network companies (TNCs) services into transit while underscoring how changes in mobility patterns and policy environments can impact the viability of such partnerships. For this purpose, this study explores three scenarios of future TNC price changes: (1) price trend extension using forecasting models (ARIMA and PROPHET), (2) price increase in response to local policy changes, and (3) TNC/taxi price convergence due to increased competition and investigates the impact of TNC price change on the prospect of transit agency-TNC partnerships, using a case study in the Seattle region. The results highlight the potential of TNCs’ average price increase and their consecutive negative impact on the expected cost-effectiveness of transit agency-TNC partnerships. The third study advances the evaluation of new mobility services by incorporating equity into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of transit by incorporating new mobility services (TIMOD) projects. Using the distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) framework, this study models the social distributions of the generalized cost of various mobility alternatives across different income groups and built environments when evaluating TIMOD services. It highlights the importance of integrating equity in the planning decisions. The results show that TIMOD services could increase mobility options and decrease the overall inequality associated with generalized travel costs in suburban areas. However, the trade-off between travel cost reductions and inequality varies based on the built environment characteristics and income level of different suburban areas. Hence, the study discusses how transit agencies would benefit from analyzing equity and efficiency tradeoffs when introducing TIMOD services, as it informs their decision-making process and prioritization of service areas or targeted populations. The three studies collectively contribute to advancing public transit and transportation equity in the 'new normal' era. The dissertation findings have significant implications for ongoing and future projects involving new mobility services, offering valuable insights on effectively and equitably addressing transportation equity challenges in a post-pandemic world.