Tropical Cyclones and Covid-19: How disaster managers can help prevent Covid-19 outbreaks after severe tropical cyclones in Oceania

Abstract

With the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been concern that outbreaks will follow tropicalcyclones, based on the narrative that disaster managers will be hard-pressed to deal with multiple disasters at once. This narrative is particularly urgent for Island Nations in the South Pacific, where tropical cyclones are predicted to become more frequent and intense with climate change. Climate change also affects propagation of infectious diseases, so interactions like this are likely to continue with time. Previous disaster theory connected tropical cyclones with outbreaks of other airborne diseases via disruption of health care, poor sanitation, poor nutrition, and crowding. These risks occurred in real-time during April-August, 2020, when severe weather events affected parts of Vanuatu, the Philippines, and the United States. Ultimately, the question of preparedness for managing multiple stressors at once is rooted in policy, and a risk matrix revealed high scores for disaster plans in Fiji, Tonga, and Vanuatu. The adaptability present in pre-existing disaster plans for these Island Nations holds great potential for integrating Covid-19 measures into disaster management.