Exploring Tax Base Implications of Sea Level Rise in Westport, WA

Abstract

Global climate change has led to an accelerating trend of mean sea level rise, putting coastal communities around the world at risk from flooding, more intense storm surges, saltwater intrusion, and increased erosion. The coastal city of Westport, WA is vulnerable to sea level rise due to its low elevation, and even today experiences flooding during king tide events. This area will also be affected by any Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis in the future, and is predicted to be almost entirely inundated in a medium to large magnitude scenario except for a few narrow dune ridges with greater elevation. Due to these acute and longer-term risks, the city needs to explore adaptation solutions to safeguard human lives, infrastructure and capital investments, and the continuity of its governmental solvency. The uncertainty of sea level rise predictions and the infrequent and unpredictable nature of CSZ ruptures can lead to a lack of urgency in the planning response. In the long run, retreat to higher ground is the only adaptation solution that will reduce most hazard risk for Westport. Retreat is a controversial topic globally and in the local community that has cascading effects across all dimensions of the human experience. There are factors that “push” a community to relocate, and factors that “pull” those people to resettle in a safer area. Successful models of managed retreat have used DAPP to make a plan that adapts as various thresholds are reached throughout the process. These thresholds can be incorporated into a community’s plan to signal when a push or pull factor reaches a critical point, and the next phase of the plan should be implemented.