Inclusivity, Enrollment, and Success in Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) Seafood Sustainability Certification Programs

Abstract

In the past twenty years, seafood sustainability certifications have emerged as a heralded alternative to traditional government-based fisheries management. However, certifying organizations such as the Marine Stewardship Council have often struggled to reach fisheries in the Global South, which are likely among those most in need of improved management. Here, we examine socio-economic factors predicting enrollment and withdrawal from Marine Stewardship Council certifications, and differences in retention and stock assessment outcomes between typical and atypical MSC fisheries. A random forest model identified cost-associated variables, such as existing good governance and high regional biomass, as the most predictive of a fishery’s propensity to enroll. However, atypical MSC fisheries, while less likely to enroll, were not broadly less likely to succeed when they did. Withdrawal propensity did not correlate with enrollment propensity, and was predominantly predicted by benefit-associated variables, such as high price, tonnage, and greater international trade. I therefore attribute the documented lack of MSC fisheries in the global South to asymmetric information around the enrollment process. Fisheries likely do not possess good information about what benefits, such as a price premium, to expect from MSC certification, and only those which are already close to certification standards may be willing to take a chance on the program. However, there may be many more fisheries, particularly those which are highly-priced and export-oriented, which could be successful MSC fisheries if they could overcome initial hurdles to reach certification standards. Finally, MSC enrollment was associated with desirable stock assessment outcomes in terms of catch and biomass, but due to data limitations we were only able to evaluate contexts in which it acted as a supplement, rather than an alternative, to government regulations.