Increasingly Radical: Examining Predictors of Support for Reactionary Right-Wing Candidates for the United States House of Representatives

Abstract

Why are voters in Western democracies turning towards more reactionary right-wing politicians? Using the United States as a prominent example of this phenomenon I examine the validity of various explanations for increasing popularity and electoral success of right-wing candidates. By combining newly available measures of candidate ideology with individual level survey responses and county-level contextual information, I use multi-level logistic models to identify predictors of White Republicans supporting reactionary right politicians in United States Hose of Representatives elections from 2010 to 2020. I find that residents of counties with higher social capital are more likely to support far-right candidates and that this relationship is strengthened in settings where county-level unemployment is low. Additionally, I find that those residing in counties that have seen an increase in the Hispanic population and those who reside in more economically unequal counties are more likely to support far-right candidates. In combination, these results lend support to the notion that it is not those who have been left behind economically that are moving towards right-wing candidate, but rather it isthose in areas that have experienced demographic change and who experience a sense of status threat from their new neighbors who support such candidates.