Climate Impacts Group Research and Papers

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/handle/1773/23890

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Management Brief: Don't Move a Mussel: Preventing and Managing the Spread of Invasive Mussels
(2025-08-18) Greenfield, Kaper; Colberg, Eva
In September 2023, invasive quagga mussel larvae were detected in the Columbia River Basin, the last major North American river basin without an established population. The presence of these and other invasive mussel species such as zebra and golden mussels poses a direct threat to sensitive ecosystems, local economies, and cultural resources. Warming waters and other climate factors may facilitate the expansion of suitable habitats for these species. In turn, the impacts of established invasive mussels could worsen the climate challenges already being faced in the Northwest.
Management Brief: Don't Get Crabby, Get Proactive! Managing European Green Crab in a Changing Climate
(2025-10-08) Thurman, Lindsey L.; Rudnick, Deborah A.; Colberg, Eva
The European green crab has received significant attention for its known and potential economic, cultural, and ecological impacts in the Northwest and beyond. This Management Brief compiles information on the ways warming temperatures can influence this ongoing invasion and highlights the role climate adaptation can play in management.
Management Brief: Managing the Threat of Emerald Ash Borer Invasion in a Changing Climate
(2025-10-08) Thurman, Lindsey L.; Rudnick, Deborah A.
In June 2022, the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; “EAB”) was discovered in Forest Grove, OR, marking its first appearance west of the Rocky Mountains. Forest managers fear for the future of Oregon ash (Fraxinus latifolia) and at least 8 other tree species found only in western North America. Climate change may broaden the threat of EAB invasion and will require climate-smart, proactive management to sustain healthy forests.
Effect of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Chehalis Basin
(2016-07-08) Mauger, Guillaume; Lee, Se-Yeun; Bandaragoda, Christina; Serra, Yolande; Won, Jason
Recent flooding in the Chehalis basin has led managers, residents, and others to begin evaluating options for managing flood risk in the future (e.g., Ruckleshaus Center 2012). Climate change is expected to both increase the risk of winter flooding and decrease summer low flows – with implications for human communities and ecosystems alike. This document summarizes the results of a study aimed at providing initial estimates of the impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Chehalis River basin. The specific objectives of this work were to: 1. Refine projections of changing hydrology in the Chehalis River Basin, 2. Supply the larger project team with new inputs for hydraulic and ecosystem models, and 3. Evaluate the potential for climate change to alter the proportion of runoff originating above the proposed dam during flood events.
In the Hot Seat: Saving Lives from Extreme Heat in Washington state
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2023-06-22) Vogel, Jason; Hess, Jeremy; Kearl, Zach; Naismith, Kelly; Bumbaco, Karin; Henning, Brian, G.; Cunningham, Rad; Bond, Nick
Extremely hot weather is more than just uncomfortable — it can be dangerous and even deadly. In 2021, more than 400 people in Washington died from direct and indirect heat-related causes during a week-long extreme heat event. Many more people suffered from heat-related illnesses, and the event contributed to significant economic hardship. Enough is already known about the risks of extreme heat, and potential solutions, to take action that will save the lives of Washingtonians when the next extreme heat event occurs. In the Hot Seat: Saving Lives from Extreme Heat in Washington State describes the problem of extreme heat and outlines specific, actionable guidance for short-term emergency response and long-term risk reduction. It addresses the following questions: What are the impacts of extreme heat? Are certain individuals and communities at greater risk? How is risk changing in the future? Who is involved in preventing heat-related illnesses and death? What actions can we take to prevent illness and death during extreme heat events? From creating culturally-specific cooling centers, to increasing tree canopy and shade in certain urban areas, to improving protections for workers, the report highlights roles state and local governments, elected officials, community- and faith-based organizations and others can play in reducing the health impacts of heat exposure and saving lives from extreme heat. This report was written in collaboration with the University of Washington Center for Health and the Global Environment, the Washington Department of Health, the Office of the Washington State Climatologist, Gonzaga University Center for Climate, Society and the Environment and the Climate Impacts Group. For more information, including resources from author team organizations, check out the “heat-related resources” section below.
Biophysical Climate Risks and Economic Impacts for Washington State
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2022-12) Raymond, Crystal; Nadreau, Timothy; Rogers, Matt; Kearl, Zach
The Washington State 2021-23 Operating Budget ESSB 5092 Sec 606(23)) funded the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) to “provide an updated climate risk assessment designed to inform future updates to the statewide climate resilience strategy.” The UW CIG, with Washington State University IMPACT Center, compiled information on two science-based elements of climate risk: Biophysical Impacts: Projections of the magnitude and timing of changes in the climate and climate-related hazards. Expected climate changes are mapped for Washington State, summarized by county, and presented in an interactive web application for local governments and state agencies, Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington. Economic Impacts: Case studies of the economic consequences of three key biophysical impacts — extreme heat, wildfire, drought —for the economy in Washington. This assessment of future changes in the climate and climate-related hazards, with associated economic consequences, can inform state and local plans for climate resilience and prioritization of funding for risk-reduction activities.
Integrating Climate Resilience into Washington State Water System Planning
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2022-10-13) Asinas, Erica; Raymond, Crystal; Mehta, Anam
Through a systematic review of existing water system plans and case study analysis, we explored if and how Washington state’s water system planning process could be a mechanism for climate resilience planning among small drinking water systems. Under Washington state rule WAC 246-290-100, Group A Community Systems with 1,000 or more service connections are required to periodically develop and gain approval for a Water System Plan (WSP) from the Department of Health’s Office of Drinking Water to demonstrate 1) system capacity to provide safe and reliable drinking water and 2) how the system will address present and future needs in a manner consistent with other relevant plans and local, state, and federal laws. To achieve this, WSPs are required to develop demand forecasts and a source supply analysis for at least a twenty-year planning period. Although an assessment of future climate impacts is not directly required, the requirement to develop future demand forecasts and a source supply analysis is an opportunity to consider the long-term effects of changes in the climate on demand and the quantity and quality of water sources. WSPs are also used by the State to determine drinking water system eligibility for low-interest financing of climate resilience projects and the Drinking Water State Revolving Funds, which can provide systems with funding for emergency response to climate-related hazards.
The Sensitivity and Vulnerability of the Pacific Northwest (USA) to Climate Variability and Change: A Human Dimensions Perspective
(1998-11) Miles, Edward L.; Hamlet, Alan; Snover, Amy; Callahan, Bridget; Fluharty, David
Paper prepared for the IHDP/GECHS Workshop on water and Human Security in Southeast Asia and Oceania, Canberra, Australia, Australian National University, 16-18 November, 1998. Following the paper on patterns of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) (USA) by Nathan Mantua; and the paper analyzing the impacts of climate variability on patterns of reservoir operations by Alan Hamlet, this paper completes the triptych on the integrated assessment of the impacts of climate variability and change in the region. The paper answers three questions from a human dimensions perspective: I. How sensitive is the PNW to climate variability? 2. How adaptable is the PNW to climate variability and change? 3. How vulnerable is the PNW to climate variability and change?
Economic and Human Dimensions of Climate Variability and Climate Change: Insights from the First Three Years of Research
(1999-04) Kaje, Janne
JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest. Paper prepared for the NOAA Economics and Human Dimensions Meeting, Tucson, AZ, April 26-28, 1999. Our research team studies the natural climate variability of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) using, primarily, instrumental records of temperature, precipitation, streamflow and snowpack. In addition, we have collected paleoclimate data spanning the last several hundred years (using tree ring data) and plan to add lake sediment data spanning the last 10,000 years. Climate variations occur on a range of timescales. The dominant one for temperature and precipitation is the familiar seasonal pattern. Another important timescale is 2-7 years, the period of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and in fact we have found many connections between ENSO and the regional climate of the PNW. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of variability with a longer timescale, with reversals in phase occurring every 2-3 decades. In addition to natural climate variability, we also study the potential impacts of human activities on the global and regional climate. Our research team is charged with providing the PNW regional contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). There is no doubt that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing, and that it will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. Increasing carbon dioxide will, almost certainly, lead eventually to an increase in global mean temperature. This does not imply that the mean temperature everywhere will rise; regional impacts of global climate change may be subtle and surprising. Part of our purpose is to leam how global climate change might impact the PNW, given our understanding of past climate variability and its impacts. We think that the regional impacts of climate change will not be experienced as changes in conditions per se, but rather as changes in patterns of climate variability.
Preparing Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife for a Changing Climate: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Action
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2021-06) Shirk, Andrew; Morgan, Harriet; Krosby, Meade; Raymond, Crystal; Mauger, Guillaume; Lynn, Helbrecht
The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) recognizes that climate change poses challenges to fulfilling its mission to "preserve, protect and perpetuate fish, wildlife, and ecosystems while providing sustainable fish and wildlife recreational and commercial opportunities." The agency is already experiencing climate-related impacts, which will be exacerbated as the pace of climate change accelerates over the coming decades. Concerns regarding the projected impacts of climate change to the agency motivated the adoption of Policy #5408: Addressing the Risks of Climate Change. The purpose of this policy is to provide guidance for managing risks to WDFW investments due to current and future impacts of climate change. The policy led to the establishment of the current Climate Action Team, which recently held a series of workshops which resulted in a climate risk assessment for each program within the agency. This report furthers that work by including a discussion of how climate change might affect species and ecosystems in Washington (Section 1) and summarizing the overarching vulnerabilities to agency operations and investments identified in the workshops (Section 2). As a next step towards building climate resilience across the agency it also summarizes potential opportunities for action (Section 3) that were identified by the Climate Action Team.
New Culvert Projections for Washington State: Improved Modeling, Probabilistic Projections, and an Updated Web Tool
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2021-09) Mauger, Guillaume; Liu, Mingliang; Adam, Jenny; Won, Jason; Wilhere, George; Dulan, Dan; Atha, Jane; Helbrecht, Lynn; Quinn, Tim
This report marks the third phase in a multi-phase project. We developed new streamflow projections, using new dynamically downscaled projections, which are expected to better capture changes in climate at the local level than the statistically downscaled projections used in phases one and two. These new projections, and a new approach to estimating the probability of structure failure, are currently being incorporated into a major update of the Fish and Wildlife tool.
Bias-Corrected and Dynamically-Downscaled Hourly Temperature Projections for Sea-Tac
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2021-12) Mauger, Guillaume; Won, Jason
Load forecasting requires hourly temperature estimates in order to better estimate energy demand. This memo describes the bias-correction approach used to develop new dynamically-downscaled projections of historical and future hourly temperatures at SeaTac. The purpose of this memo is two-fold: 1. Describe the general approach to bias correcting all WRF hourly temperatures, and 2. Describe the additional bias-correction applied to correct for anomalous cold snaps.
Technical Memo: Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Affecting Seattle City Light
(University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2022-01) Mauger, Guillaume; Morgan, Harriet; Raymond, Crystal; Won, Jason
Changes in extreme weather metrics related to heat, high winds, and lightning may have implications for Seattle City Light operations, planning, and standards. This memo describes an updated assessment of changes in extreme winds, lightning, and heat waves for locations and metrics of interest to Seattle City Light.
Projecting Future High Flows on King County Rivers: Phase 2 Results
(2022-05-08) Mauger, G. S.; Won, J. S.
CIG scientists developed estimates of future flooding on the Green, Snoqualmie, and South Fork Skykomish rivers. The aim of this study is to provide King County decision makers with relevant, specific data that will allow them to account for climate change in their flood risk management practices. For the Green River, we also accounted for the effect of reservoir operations by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) at Howard Hanson Dam.
Projected Changes in Streamflow and Water Temperature in Chico Creek, Kitsap County
(2022-05-08) Mauger, G. S.; Won, J. S.; Cristea, N.
The purpose of this study was to provide projections of future streamflows and water temperatures for use in assessing the impacts of climate change on salmonids in the Chico Creek Watershed. This information is intended to help the Suquamish Tribe prioritize conservation and restoration actions. To do this, we developed a high-resolution, physically-based hydrological and water temperature model for the Chico Creek watershed, and used it to quantify future changes in streamflow and summer water temperature. Our models project that peak streamflows will be even higher and water temperatures will warm significantly. These changes may threaten the survival of salmon. Changes in seasonal average and annual minimum flows will be minimal — meaning that average streamflows are projected to remain unchanged and the lowest streamflows will not get lower.
Climate Change & Flooding in Snohomish County: New Dynamically-Downscaled Hydrologic Model Projections
(2022-05-08) Mauger, G. S.; Robinson, J.; Mitchell, R. J.; Won, J.; Cristea, N.
We produced new projections of future streamflow, with a particular emphasis on flooding, for the Snohomish and Stillaguamish Rivers. Our results show that peak flows will increase in the future, with increases ranging from about 10 to 40% on average by the end of the century, depending on the river location or flood statistics considered. Funded by Snohomish County, these new results will support the County’s efforts to incorporate climate change impacts in floodplain management decisions.
The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment
(2009-06) Climate Impacts Group
The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment is the most comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on Washington State completed to date. The assessment, funded by the Washington State Legislature through House Bill 1303, involved developing updated climate change scenarios for Washington State and using these scenarios to assess the impacts of climate change to the following sectors: agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, urban stormwater infrastructure, salmon, and hydrology and water resources. Adaptation in each of these sectors was also discussed. The Executive Summary highlights major conclusions from the Washington Assessment, which was conducted by the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington in partnership with Washington State University and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
State of Knowledge: Climate Change in Puget Sound
(2005-11) Mauger, Guillaume; Casola, Joseph; Morgan, Harriet; Strauch, Ronda; Jones, Brittany; Curry, Beth; Busch Isaksen, Tania; Whitely Binder, Lara; Krosby, Meade; Snover, Amy

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